Estimated results

  • Database with detailed inventory and classification of forestry units with vulnerability of fire, using satellite image, forestry management plans and other databases. Databases will include vegetation data (dryness, biomass quantity, age, consistency, species etc.), climate data (annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, evaporation potential, absolute maximum temperature, monthly mean temperature, radiation quantity, wind intensity and direction, medium duration of interval between two rain, etc.), soil (consistency, humidity, litter characteristics, depth, pH, caloric capacity etc.), terrain (exposition, slope, altitude), hydrography and hydrogeology (flow regime), human (infrastructure, activities) and other relevant data (history of forest fires, loses, surfaces etc.). The data will be extracted for pilot areas, and will be validated using terrain observation.
  • Analysis algorithms for forest fires susceptibility assessment after different association of the parameters. The algorithms will resulted after apply different statistic methods (multi-criteria, multi-cluster etc.). The algorithm will present different degree of correlation between parameters, and will estimate the importance in forest fires appearance.
  • Model for forest fire monitoring represent a key product of this project and it will mathematically describe the potential of forest fire to appear and propagate. The model is planned to be generalized for temperate forest fire management.
  • Susceptibility maps and their over posing by different human vulnerable objects (settlement, infrastructure, protected areas) and infrastructure for intervention. The forest fire susceptibility maps will demonstrate the model viability, and will be realized using model created in the project.

Obtained results and conclusions

Wildfire in Romania was considered for decades a secondary natural hazard. This is the reason of a poor database of events.

In the context of the recent climate change evolution, after the year 2000, the Inspectorate for Emergency Situations started to maintain a database of wildfire events. This is rather a statistic database than a spatial database.

Forest fires were in the center of our approach because of the economic importance in the context of economic losses, also affecting infrastructures as well as natural and national parks, including NATURA 2000 sites.

Wildfire events are the most frequent in the months of March (foehn influences to the outer slopes of Southern Carpathians and Apuseni Mountains) and August (dry episodes) in the context of local and regional climatic features.

The area with the highest susceptibility was mapped by developing a GIS application for static and dynamic component modeling. An important role was assigned to soil cover features as well as to forest stand features.

d

This model was tested on Mehedinti Mountain area, recognized as the driest part of Carpathians, where pine forests are affected by forest fires.

d

Although the study area is included in temperate climate region, forest fire occurrence is a reality, not by an increasing number of events but with the enlargement of forest stand affected during recent years.

The analysis confirm that forests on limestone, conglomerates, sandstones, sands, gravels etc. (high permeability rocks), where litter is continuous are the most susceptible to wildfire (SW Romania with sub Mediterranean climate features, Eastern Apuseni Mts.). Local foehn winds (January to March) creates favorable conditions for fire ignition at the interface between forest and rural area and not only.

d

In conclusion:

  • SIAFIM Project proposed a method based on the 4 pilot areas (Ceahlau Mountains, Iezer Mountains Domogled-Baile Herculane area and Comana Natural Park)
  • The method has been tested and validated in order to create a product geomatic to be used at the level of the Romanian territory
  • The methodology is based on geospatial analysis tools and imagery derived from European sensors
  • The product is suitable for the requirements of the various users: public administration, emergency services, infrastructure operators, natural parks administration etc.
  • Was created an intuitive interface which allows real-time access to maps of fire susceptibility for different areas in order to offer safety management decisions.
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